A Stronger Response To Delta is Required Now

I’ve been struck in recent days by how much COVID’s return has begun to alter the basic political landscape in the US. Thursday’s Navigator Research report found that on the question of whether on COVID “the worst is over” or “the worst is yet to come” voters have swung from 72% worst is over/13% worst is yet to come (+59) to 31% worst is over/51% worst is yet to come (-20, see graph below). The venerable University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey released last Friday reported one of its largest drops ever. Another important barometer of consumer sentiment, retail sales, unexpectedly dropped in July.

For Democrats, the most important COVID numbers relate to President Biden. In yesterday’s Navigator poll, President Biden’s approval on handling COVID was 54%-43%, +11. It was 65%-32%, +33, on May 10th and +15 on August 4th. On May 10th the President’s job approval was 53.5%-42.1%, +11, in 538. Today on 538 it is 49.1%-45.6%. +3.5. Both of these measures are the lowest of his Presidency.

It is important to note that this decline in the President’s approval has come when the economy was producing a million new jobs a month, GDP growth came in at 6.5% and tens of millions of people received two rounds of child tax credit payments. One would have expected the President’s numbers to be rising as the economy boomed, but instead they’ve dropped.