Analysis: 4 GOP Polls Show Ds With 3–6 Point Leads — It’s A New, Bluer Election

For this week’s election update we’ve averaged the Congressional Generic results of 26 polls taken since Roe ended on June 24th and found Democrats leading 44.5% to 41.9%, +2.6 points. That’s a 4–5 point shift from where the election was in mid-June.

Notably, 4 influential Republican polls released over the past week show significant leads for Democrats in the 2022 election:

Americans for Prosperity 42–39 (+3)

Echelon Insights 48–44 (+4)

Chamber of Commerce 46–41 (+5)

Winning The Issues 47–41 (+6)

The 2.6 point Dem lead (and 3 to 6 pts in this GOP polling) is significant for it’s believed that Democrats will need at least a 2 point national win to keep the House. A new Morning Consult poll finds independent voters swinging from +3 GOP in May to +8 Dem today, an 11 (!!!!) point swing. The Economist/YouGov poll moved from +3 Dem last week to +6 this week. All this data suggests that the Democrats have a real shot at keeping both chambers this fall, as Senate polling also remains remarkably favorable for Democrats. Ongoing GOP underperformance in the three GOP held Senate seats of OH, PA and WI continues to be one of 2022’s most important stories. In retrospect the big Dem overperformance in the NE House special right after Roe ended appears to have been a harbinger that a new, bluer election was at hand, and should not have been treated as some weird…